School Board gets updated demographic data
Before I forget (or move on to other things), the School Board got a presentation on some new demographic data that show projected population trends for the next decade. The upshot? Alameda Unified’s population is projected to decline by close to 400 students over the next decade, from 9,738 this year to 9,374 in 2019-20.
Between this year and the 2014-15 school year, Washington Elementary School’s population is expected to drop by more than 100 students, from 287 to 184, while Haight Elementary School would lose 63 students, shrinking from an enrollment of 429 students to 366 students. Encinal High School’s enrollment would drop from its current 1,070 to 831 in 2014-15.
Still, enrollments would balloon at Edison, Otis and Franklin elementary schools, with Otis growing from 461 students this year to 581 in 2014, Edison gaining 68 students over this year’s population, growing from 410 to 478, and Franklin’s student population rising from 287 to 343.
Since 2002, the district’s enrollments have declined by 6.1 percent, though kindergarten enrollments grew. Enrollments at grades 6-8 declined each year since 2002, but those in grades 9-12 grew by 5.9 percent between 2002 and 2009, a presentation given by Cheryl King and Jamie King, staffers with Jack Schreder & Associates, the consulting company that authored the demographic report.
The projections relied on historical birth data, student migration rates, housing sales data, a survey of apartments and low income housing, private school information for Alameda and neighboring cities and unspecified community demographic information. They did not include information on existing charter schools – some of which have plans to expand – and a proposed charter at Chipman Middle School.
Separately, the demographers estimated that current development plans for Alameda Point, if approved by voters, would add 1,600 students, generating the need for three new schools.
The projections were put together in order to to help district leaders plan their long-range facilities needs. A facilities inventory and needs assessment is due to the board on December 8.
While we’re talking schools, I want to remind folks that the district has put together one last survey laying out different options for their master plan. It’s online, and you need to fill it out before Monday, December 7. Get the skinny on The Island’s schools page, which is updated weekly.